Subseasonal Forecasts: Science & applications of long-range forecasting
The science of subseasonal forecasts is rapidly emerging as a means to provide valuable environmental forecasts weeks into the future. Whereas the useful skill of traditional deterministic weather forecasts is limited to 14-day lead times or less, probabilistic subseasonal forecasts provide users the opportunity to extend the useful lead time beyond the deterministic limit.
THIS WEBINAR ADDRESSES THESE KEY ISSUES:
- The science of subseasonal forecasting – including dynamical models and analog methods
- Emerging scientific research directions that are increasing the skill and applicability of subseasonal forecasts
Moderator & Chair, and Panellists:
Dr. Jan F. Dutton
CEO, Prescient Weather Ltd
Jan is the creator of the World Climate Service seasonal/subseasonal forecast application and holds a PhD in Meteorology and an MBA from Penn State University in the United States.
His career spans over 20 years in the weather information industry.
Dr. Nachiketa Acharya
Research Scientist III, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado, and Physical Sciences Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Nachiketa is a statistical climatologist with specialties in statistical and machine learning modeling in climate science, especially sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasting.
Previously, he has held influential positions at the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences at the Pennsylvania State University, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University, the Institute for Sustainable Cities at the City University of New York, the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting in India, the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, and Bhubaneswar.
He received his Ph.D. in Statistics from Utkal University, India in 2014 which focused on statistical techniques for extended range prediction of the Indian monsoon. He is actively engaged in several Regional Climate Outlook Forum and co-leading the Building Block-3 of Regional Information for Society, WCRP. For more information, https://psl.noaa.gov/people/nachiketa.acharya/
Dr. Marybeth Arcodia
Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University
Marybeth Arcodia currently works as a Postdoctoral Research Fellow for Colorado State University researching sources of predictability within the Earth's climate system on subseasonal to decadal timescales using explainable machine learning. Her work includes utilizing climate models and observational data to understand large scale connections to identify and improve forecasts of opportunity.
She received her PhD in Atmospheric Science from the University of Miami Rosenstiel School in 2021.
Jon Davis
Chief Meteorologist, Everstream Analytics
Jon leads the Everstream Analytics weather and climate division for energy, agriculture, and supply chain logistics. Based in Barcelona, Spain, Jon brings over 35 years of experience and is widely considered one of the foremost experts on the impact of weather and climate on global commodities and business.
After graduating from the University of Wisconsin (Madison) with a degree in meteorology, he spent 18 years on Wall Street in the commodity divisions within Citigroup (Chief Meteorologist) and 11 at Chesapeake Energy (Chief Meteorologist).
In 2015, Jon was given the prestigious Award for the Outstanding Contribution to the Advance of Applied Meteorology by the AMS (American Meteorological Society). In 2017, Jon was awarded the Kenneth C. Spengler Award for outstanding vision to advance the role of meteorology in the new energy economy and outstanding leadership of the AMS Energy Committee and its conference.
Dr. Thea Turkington
Senior Research Scientist, Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS)
With a background in various weather and climate timescales. Thea has worked as a weather forecaster in New Zealand, before shifting her focus to climate. In 2016, she obtained her PhD from the University of Twente, Netherlands, on the topic of climate change and natural hazards. Her current research work includes working with users to develop subseasonal and seasonal predictions for Singapore and Southeast Asia, as well as underlying research in understanding the effects and impacts of weather and climate processes.
